UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 12, 2024 18:25:14 GMT
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 13, 2024 6:53:20 GMT
The Plaid Cymru manifesto is coming out today, and so is the Labour one. Labour has been accused of not being fiscally responsible, with election promises not being properly costed. So, just like 2019, then.
The Mainstream Media is spi nine a wonderful message of Labour winning, but since they keep using YouGov for all of their poll results, we can safely ignore the claims.
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 13, 2024 6:54:04 GMT
He talks the only rubbish worth listening to. |
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 13, 2024 9:22:51 GMT
Some candidate figures
“The more Independents we have, the harder it will be for political parties to ramrod through any policy they want.“ I found a list of candidate numbers recently, but things kept changing so I assumed that nominations were still being checked and processed. Information soon becomes out of date in the current situation, but the list seems to have stablised now. Here are a few figures of interest: There are 650 vacant seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives have 635 candidates standing for election and Labour have 631. Reform UK have 609: they must have found some new people at the last minute. There are 459 Independents, spread over 317 constituencies. Rejoin EU have 26 people standing, and UKIP have 24. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election That is a lot of independent candidates. It is very telling, as it means there is a lot of political energy in the UK, much more than was anticipated. It will likely be a hard to fathom election until the last moments. There is still too much in the air right now to start to guess what path things will take - particularly when we now have Nigel Farage back in the mix. We might need extra popcorn. |
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 13, 2024 9:25:00 GMT
Who is getting all the money!
"The Conservatives have suspended their national campaign, due to lack of funds.” Some of the MPs who will not be standing for re-election are said to have dropped out because there just isn't enough time to raise the money for their electoral expenses. Maybe some big donors have decided that money given to the Conservatives would be money down the drain so are not making any contributions this time around. Maybe some fomer major Conservative supporters have been giving to Reform UK instead! A flood of new members and cash is reported to be pouring into Reform now that Nigel Farage has returned. With such a lack of money comes the question: why call a General Election now, when you are clearly ill-equipped to have one? Is there some necessity we are unaware of, that forces the hand? |
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 13, 2024 9:27:29 GMT
A record number of candidates will stand
This is hot from the BBC website: “More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll. The increase primarily comes from Reform UK ending its promise not to stand against Conservatives, the Green Party standing more candidates and the Workers Party of Britain entering its first general election. There has also been a large spike in the number of independent and smaller party candidates standing.” www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo This is very significant. It means there is a matter of political motivation, and it is not simply a case of the Big Two this time around. And given the current round of political chaos in the EU, big changes are underfoot. |
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 13, 2024 18:08:35 GMT
“With such a lack of money comes the question: why call a General Election now, when you are clearly ill-equipped to have one? Is there some necessity we are unaware of, that forces the hand?”
This is exactly what I have been wondering. It certainly didn't give his people much notice. Some people allege that Rishi knows he won't win; he just wants to get it over with so that he can go to the US and get his family settled in by the autumn.
There may be much more to it than this. Maybe something is coming that he wants to avoid.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 13, 2024 18:09:11 GMT
“We might need extra popcorn.”
I suspect that there will be plenty of 'popcorn time' developments ahead.
I plan to get enough food in for July 5th and the following two days in case the show is so exciting that I don't want to go out and miss anything.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 15, 2024 17:49:50 GMT
“It will likely be a hard to fathom election until the last moments. There is still too much in the air right now to start to guess what path things will take...”
I agree that all bets seem to be off.
It isn't over 'till it's over. There is still time for something to happen that will take a lot of support away from Labour
I am trying not to look at polls or get too involved with speculation: I am interested only in hard facts and major developments.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 17, 2024 18:16:39 GMT
Two of the usual suspects are missing
Neither Piers Corbyn nor Laurence Fox and his Reclaim Party are on the candidates list. Maybe they know that standing for election at such short notice would be a waste of resources. Together last July: 
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 19, 2024 6:28:16 GMT
Lack of interest and lack of funds?
I went on some long bus rides in SW London yesterday. I saw many Palestine flags and England football flags hanging from shops, houses and blocks of flats, but I saw only one political banner - it was Vote Labour!
I saw just one billboard too: it had something about Keir Starmer and council tax on it.
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 19, 2024 6:56:12 GMT
I keep hearing people are going to vote Rwform, and the railway workers seem split between Reform and Labour. The reason why Labour is seen as an option, is because of the promise to nationalise the railways, which would benefit them.
It is getting very interesting. We also have yet to see the months after the election, either. We are entering a period of immense political earthquakes, so it will be interesting to see what unfolds.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 20, 2024 17:51:55 GMT
Nigel and the People's Army
Nigel Farage says that people from all over the country are coming to Clacton to help him with his campaigning. He says that he can't let the People's Army down, but the Conservatives will stop at nothing to prevent his winning! Indications are that he will win the seat, but his army is still making a big effort with leafleting and canvassing. 
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 21, 2024 6:37:50 GMT
Nigel and the People's Army
Nigel Farage says that people from all over the country are coming to Clacton to help him with his campaigning. He says that he can't let the People's Army down, but the Conservatives will stop at nothing to prevent his winning! Indications are that he will win the seat, but his army is still making a big effort with leafleting and canvassing. This shows how mobilised people are around Nigel Farage. And you need to consider that if there are huge crowds leafleting and campaigning for him in Clacton, what energy is there in their home towns? Those energised people will likely motivate everyone around them to vote Reform. This has become a wildly different election than it was at the beginning. And we still have two weeks to go! |
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 21, 2024 6:39:41 GMT
This is a fantastic video to watch, as it gives out a timeline to the election, and lays out how come it has massively changed. It also says something about Clacton that we had not known before, which also helps to explain why this could be the key place that influenced the election.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 21, 2024 17:55:38 GMT
Still no signs!
More bus rides and nothing to report in the way of billboards, banners and posters.
I have heard from someone who lives in east London and has been out and about, and he too has seen nothing.
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 25, 2024 6:24:09 GMT
Still no signs!
More bus rides and nothing to report in the way of billboards, banners and posters. I have heard from someone who lives in east London and has been out and about, and he too has seen nothing. There are a few people putting up A4 type posters to vote Green or Labour, and there is the odd sign here and there for Labour... but that is it. |
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 25, 2024 6:25:33 GMT
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 25, 2024 6:42:48 GMT
Yoruba!
I am still looking for electoral material while out but, amazing as it may seem, have found nothing more apart from one banner in Peckham asking people to vote for the Yoruba Party. I had to look that one up. The party was founded in February this year; they have just the one candidate: 
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 25, 2024 6:46:02 GMT
“Looks like the Conservatives are out of money, and on financial life support. “
That makes sense. I have had just one leaflet in the post from them.
What have you seen in the way of posters banners and billboards where you are?
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 27, 2024 17:46:28 GMT
Nigel Farage “to make history” on Sunday
Nigel Farage has announced that he will be holding the biggest political rally of his entire career in Birmingham's National Exhibition Centre on Sunday. It will be Reform UK's final big push before polling day. His recent rallies around the country are reported to be sell-outs. The leaders of various far-right political parties including Britain First are reported to be urging their supporters to vote for Reform UK. 
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 29, 2024 16:47:46 GMT
Four more days to go
I have been out looking for posters etc. in many areas. Apart from the two examples already reported, I have been unable to find any indications that an election is due.
My polling card hasn't arrived yet. The one for May's London elections arrived two weeks in advance.
Nigel Farage has emailed everyone on Reform UK's list to ask for more help in Clacton. He wants to make a huge final effort on the three weekdays before the election. He aims to canvass the entire constituency!
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jul 1, 2024 17:22:36 GMT
Not much to report
Reform UK's membership has doubled during the campaign. They launched a major fundraising effort on Sunday so that they can advertise in all the national papers and on the web. They raised £400k in 24 hours and their target for today is £250k.
I saw some splashes of red in the distance when going down Whitehall on a bus early last week. When I got closer, I saw that they were Labour stalls. They were there to recruit new members.
My polling card has still not arrived.
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jul 3, 2024 6:50:30 GMT
“Looks like the Conservatives are out of money, and on financial life support. “ That makes sense. I have had just one leaflet in the post from them. What have you seen in the way of posters banners and billboards where you are? There are a number of Labour Party signs, with some Green Party signs. My local MP is Damien Green, and has had historic victories in the past. He should be in an ultra safe position, but there have been boundary changes. He has sent out leaflets, Political ad newspapers, and even sent me a leaflet. So has Concensus, which is the local Party for the independent candidate. That was a booklet, to fully lay out what he has in mind, effectively a manifesto I reckon they saw I had voted, when if they cannot find out who I have voted for. Hence the direct mailing. I would say the campaign is getting heated in my area. |
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jul 3, 2024 6:58:05 GMT
Nigel Farage “to make history” on Sunday
Nigel Farage has announced that he will be holding the biggest political rally of his entire career in Birmingham's National Exhibition Centre on Sunday. It will be Reform UK's final big push before polling day. His recent rallies around the country are reported to be sell-outs. The leaders of various far-right political parties including Britain First are reported to be urging their supporters to vote for Reform UK. This makes sense, as he is the clear choice for any sort of change to happen. Bretain First and the others are clearly being tactical. |
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jul 3, 2024 7:28:06 GMT
So the campaigning is getting heated in your area? That is very interesting.
You have seen and received far more political propaganda than I have!
I got a second Conservative letter but that is all. I went on a long bus ride yesterday and still saw nothing apart from a few public information posters on bus shelters that just have details of the election.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jul 3, 2024 7:29:12 GMT
Tomorrow
I am still definitely not going to stay up late.
I have heard that the BBC releases the results of its exit polls at 10:00 pm and that they give a very accurate indication of what the final figures will be. I will give that a miss too.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jul 3, 2024 17:48:18 GMT
A good conspiracy theory
I have seen suggestions that the Conservatives are pushing the idea that there will be a Labour landslide very strongly: they hope that this will make Labour supporters think that their vote isn't needed so they won't bother to go to the polls!
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jul 4, 2024 17:58:04 GMT
Today
My polling card didn't come, but I was able to vote without it. Not only were there no queues at the polling station, I was the only voter there. There was just one teller – a Conservative. He looked very dispirited and didn't ask for my number.
I went on some bus rides to pass the time. There were no queues outside the polling stations I saw.
When I got back, I found a leaflet from the Lib Dem candidate had arrived in the post.
So now all I have to do is wait for tomorrow morning.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on Jul 6, 2024 17:24:10 GMT
So now we know
The winning party is as predicted.
Turnout was very low in my constituency, which has been Conservative throughout its history. It is now in the hands of Labour.
So what happens now? Time will tell.
Get that popcorn in.
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