Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on May 23, 2024 6:41:56 GMT
Well, we now have it started: Rishi Sunak has announced the inevitable General Election. So, I am starting a thread on it, because... this one will be interesting. And the date for the election - 4th July - is not lost on me. I live the ironic comedy it represents. I also think this picture sums the whole situation up perfectly:  |
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Post by Avacyn on May 23, 2024 6:43:12 GMT
There is meant to be a big announcement from Reform UK later today. So, this will be interesting... what is the next twist in this emerging political story?
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on May 23, 2024 7:27:35 GMT
I was going to post about this, but you got in first!
I expected that the general election would be held in the autumn.
Reform UK have announced a big press conference at 11:00 today.
As for the next few weeks, I suggest getting in a very large supply of popcorn.
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Post by Avacyn on May 23, 2024 9:25:41 GMT
Well, I thought a thread would be an idea, so got to it. And I was expecting an October election, so this was unexpected.
Nigel Farage has posted on Twitter/X that he will not stand in this General Election. I am honestly not surprised.
Starmer is saying that voting Labour in will end the chaos. A lot of modern woes were created by Tony Blair, so more Labour will not help in the slightest. Most certainly, it will be a magnified disaster.
The global economy is going to implode, and when it does, he cannot try and institute digital currencies as a way forward, because people don't trust him.
There is no reliable information on what will happen, because I reckon the polls are manipulated and distorted. And the local elections are not help, because Conservative voters just stayed at home. Electoral apathy is the big concern here.
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Post by Avacyn on May 23, 2024 11:58:14 GMT
Farage is supporting Reform, but is focused on the November 5th elections,as they are more essential.
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UnseenI
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Post by UnseenI on May 23, 2024 18:19:52 GMT
“I thought a thread would be an idea, so got to it.”
I have been putting most UK political posts into the Brexit thread, but the impending general election definitely needs to be highlighted.
The 2019 GE was taken to be a second Brexit referendum. I am not sure what this one is expected to be.
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Post by UnseenI on May 25, 2024 17:43:37 GMT
Some key points from recent news items
Reform UK hope to have a candidate in every constituency. Immigration will be a big issue for them.
Nigel Farage is considered to have let Reform UK down by not standing as a candidate. He is leaving his job as GB news presenter too.
Jeremy Corbyn will stand as an Independent candidate.
Around 80 Conservative MPs so far have announced that they will not be seeking re-election.
There will be many new constituency boundaries, with some seats being renamed.
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on May 28, 2024 6:43:13 GMT
“I thought a thread would be an idea, so got to it.” I have been putting most UK political posts into the Brexit thread, but the impending general election definitely needs to be highlighted. The 2019 GE was taken to be a second Brexit referendum. I am not sure what this one is expected to be. Look at the date for it: 4th July. Independence Day in the US, because the 4th July, 1776 was when they declared Independence. The US Presidential Election is on 5th November - Guy Fawkes Night. The date we commemorate the uncovering of a plot to overthrow the duly elected and ruling Government. Rremember Dominic Cummings is talking about starting a political party, and was talking about winning the General Election in 2028? Well, the Revolutionary War lasted 8 years, 4 months and 15 days. If you start on the 12th December 2019, the date of the last Election, you end up with 28th April, 2028 - a Friday. UK elections happen on a Thursday... Just thought I would share that with you. |
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Post by Avacyn on May 28, 2024 6:47:58 GMT
What has my interest is Sunak talking about National Service. The last time the UK did that, it was 1939, and in the September we were at war. So I think we can argue that we will be on the brink of World War Three by the end of the autumn. The war drums are certainly being beat right now.
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Post by UnseenI on May 28, 2024 7:38:39 GMT
Why July and why the short notice?
All kinds of theories and speculation are going around.
The dates do seem significant for more than one reason.
The National Service possibility does seem very sinister.
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Post by Avacyn on May 29, 2024 6:44:35 GMT
Why July and why the short notice?
All kinds of theories and speculation are going around. The dates do seem significant for more than one reason. The National Service possibility does seem very sinister. They used the local elections to see if they had found a way to cheat paper ballots. We don't have voting machines, so it is much harder to rig an election. They need to do it now, because they have to get as many pieces in place before November 5th. I expect us to be on the absolute brink of war by that time. However, there are a lot of wild cards in the mix, so it is not a clear picture at this point. It could misfire on the Deep State. |
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Post by UnseenI on May 30, 2024 18:07:23 GMT
Nigel Farage is still uncommitted
When it comes to standing for election as an MP, Nigel Farage's side of the story is that the short notice did not give him enough time to work on a proper election campaign, and in any case he doesn't want to be tied to one area. This sounds reasonable. He also says that Donald Trump has not offered him a job. There are rumours that he might make some kind of pact with the Conservatives. In other words, nothing is settled yet. 
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Post by Avacyn on May 31, 2024 6:45:20 GMT
I am hearing people saying that this General Election is not significant, it is the next General Election that is important. The general mood I am picking up on, is that Labour will win. What I have also started to hear, is people talking about voting for Independent candidates as a way forward to fix the problems we have politically. And that is music to my ears, as this is what I have been saying. The more Independents we have, the harder it will be for political parties to ramrod through any policy they want. 9f course, there is an imbalance of power I the political system, in that the Commons has too much power. This needs changing, and badly. Still, there us a picture out there that sun's up the whole General Election perfectly:  |
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Post by UnseenI on May 31, 2024 17:58:15 GMT
I shall be very surprised indeed if Labour doesn't get in. I guess that votes for Reform UK - and some Independents - will be at the expense of the Conservatives. Why did Rishi decide go out in the pouring rain to announce the election?  |
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 1, 2024 18:17:29 GMT
Polls and predictions
I am going to ignore all the predictions and the never-ending polls and just wait until July 5th for the actual results.
No need to say which party is predicted to be wiped out, however there could in theory be some big developments before the election that change everything.
33 days to go!
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 2, 2024 19:50:49 GMT
Polls and predictions
I am going to ignore all the predictions and the never-ending polls and just wait until July 5th for the actual results. No need to say which party is predicted to be wiped out, however there could in theory be some big developments before the election that change everything. 33 days to go! YouGov is all online polling these days, so the information can easily be wildly skewered and unreliable. Given how Angela Rayner was basically begging for the Muslims to vote for her in the upcoming Election, I suspect that one big upset coming is going to be a lot of Muslims MPs that are Independent. I suspect they have realised that if they have no political party, they cannot be negotiated with as a block, and then bogged down by party agreements. The total number Muslims are reckoning to get is fifty. Enough to cause an upset.
But then, will there be more Independent MPs than that? What if people start voting Indy en masse? How will the Party System survive that? It could mean that there is a minority Government coming up, because no Party can build a Coalition, and then become a majority in Parliament.
So, there is still plenty of potential upset up ahead.
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 3, 2024 17:28:45 GMT
Nigel Farage has changed his mind
“So, there is still plenty of potential upset up ahead.”
You got that one right!
Today's bombshell is that Nigel Farage has taken over the leadership of Reform UK from Richard Tice and will stand for election in the Conservative-held constituency of Clacton.
He has promised to stay in post for five years. Perhaps he too is thinking about the next general election.
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 4, 2024 6:29:45 GMT
It is really interesting. Why Clacton? There is a logic here that escapes me at this time.
But it now means that the General Election is now completely different. Before, there were no options, now? We have a potential leader.
I think Farage has been shocked by the ground swell that is about. I knew it was strong, but I will admit... I never thought it was as strong as it is. I think we have a real chance of a massive political earthquake on election day, and the date would make it all the more deliciously ironic, too.
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 4, 2024 8:13:40 GMT
Two good comments about Rishi Sunak
Political journalist Robert Peston said this yesterday after Nigel Farage's announcement: “So an election campaign that initially looked like the PM paddling in a small boat into a storm now looks like him heading straight into a hurricane.” Avacyn said something even better as long ago as October 2022. I copied it into the Brexit thread, but this comment is even more relevant here and now: “Sunak wanted the job... or rather his puppet masters did. But be patient, because the way everything is crashing and burning... he will find he has an albatross around his neck and a dartboard on his back.“
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 4, 2024 9:31:31 GMT
What is Nigel up to?
“Why Clacton? There is a logic here that escapes me at this time.“ Taking over the leadership of Reform UK makes sense; it will attract more votes for the party. However, standing for election in Clacton-on-Sea will mean that there will be less time available for general campaigning in many different parts of the country. What makes Clacton of special interest is that it returned UKIP's first-ever MP in the 2014 by-election. This MP held the seat for UKIP in the 2015 general election. Clacton could well be a stronghold of potential Reform UK supporters. This really is an interesting development. So far only four other candidates have declared. Nominations close on Friday; perhaps there will be a last-minute rush of Independents and joke candidates who want to share in the reflected glory and get some of the attention that Nigel Farage's presence will attract. 
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 6, 2024 17:41:18 GMT
All eyes are on Clacton
I went to Clacton once. I will just say that I wouldn't go there again! However, maybe Nigel will do something for the local economy by attracting people to the town. I am sure that the local fish & chip shops are doing very well now. 
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 7, 2024 18:06:35 GMT
The nominations have closed
All candidates who wish to stand for election should have handed in their nomination papers by 16:00 today.
Reform UK, who intended to have a candidate in every constituency, have been reported to be around 80 people short.
The official candidate list will be published soon.
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 8, 2024 18:05:36 GMT
Count Binface will stand against Rishi
Count Binface will stand for election against Rishi Sunak in Richmond, North Yorkshire. He has this on his webste: You shirked D-Day, Rishi Sunak. But you won’t be able to avoid B-Day!
www.countbinface.com/
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Avacyn
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 10, 2024 6:40:12 GMT
What is Nigel up to?
“Why Clacton? There is a logic here that escapes me at this time.“ Taking over the leadership of Reform UK makes sense; it will attract more votes for the party. However, standing for election in Clacton-on-Sea will mean that there will be less time available for general campaigning in many different parts of the country. What makes Clacton of special interest is that it returned UKIP's first-ever MP in the 2014 by-election. This MP held the seat for UKIP in the 2015 general election. Clacton could well be a stronghold of potential Reform UK supporters. This really is an interesting development. So far only four other candidates have declared. Nominations close on Friday; perhaps there will be a last-minute rush of Independents and joke candidates who want to share in the reflected glory and get some of the attention that Nigel Farage's presence will attract. Another thing about Clacton, is that the MP was strongly Remain, and Clacton voted heavily for Leave. So this has to be another reason to go for Clacton. |
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 10, 2024 6:49:47 GMT
Count Binface will stand against Rishi
Count Binface will stand for election against Rishi Sunak in Richmond, North Yorkshire. He has this on his webste: You shirked D-Day, Rishi Sunak. But you won’t be able to avoid B-Day!
www.countbinface.com/ And now, Rishi Sunak faces his most serious threat yet... B-Day? Might be a good name for the Fourth of July at this point. I am currently reading today's Metro, to see what is going on. As Mark Twain famously said: if you don't read the newspapers, you are uninformed. If you read the newspapers, you are misinformed. So I am trying to work out what they don't want me to know, or be aware of. I have a strong suspicion that Farage will generate a result that will shock us all. I think this election is going to be a massive game changer for British politics. |
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 10, 2024 6:55:53 GMT
The Conservatives have suspended their national campaign, due to lack of funds. Their Chairman is in retreat after a car crash interview, where the journalist was ordering him to answer the questions he was hibberdy Jibberdy squirrel wording around. It was a brutal Slapdown he stormed off from.
Today the Liberal Democrats release their manifesto, tomorrow the Tories, Wednesday is the Greens and Thursday is understood to be the day Labour releases theirs.
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Post by Avacyn on Jun 10, 2024 6:59:17 GMT
Two good comments about Rishi Sunak
Political journalist Robert Peston said this yesterday after Nigel Farage's announcement: “So an election campaign that initially looked like the PM paddling in a small boat into a storm now looks like him heading straight into a hurricane.” Avacyn said something even better as long ago as October 2022. I copied it into the Brexit thread, but this comment is even more relevant here and now: “Sunak wanted the job... or rather his puppet masters did. But be patient, because the way everything is crashing and burning... he will find he has an albatross around his neck and a dartboard on his back.“ And now, he is hiding in Number Ten as if it is the Fuhrer Bunker... This election is wild. I thought k Sunak and Starmer are in a brutal Mortal Kombat style fight for who can win the title for most shambolic election campaign... Farage might just need to sit back and just let them two do the work for him. |
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 10, 2024 16:39:58 GMT
Some candidate figures
“The more Independents we have, the harder it will be for political parties to ramrod through any policy they want.“ I found a list of candidate numbers recently, but things kept changing so I assumed that nominations were still being checked and processed. Information soon becomes out of date in the current situation, but the list seems to have stablised now. Here are a few figures of interest: There are 650 vacant seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives have 635 candidates standing for election and Labour have 631. Reform UK have 609: they must have found some new people at the last minute. There are 459 Independents, spread over 317 constituencies. Rejoin EU have 26 people standing, and UKIP have 24. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 11, 2024 17:54:44 GMT
Who is getting all the money!
"The Conservatives have suspended their national campaign, due to lack of funds.”
Some of the MPs who will not be standing for re-election are said to have dropped out because there just isn't enough time to raise the money for their electoral expenses.
Maybe some big donors have decided that money given to the Conservatives would be money down the drain so are not making any contributions this time around.
Maybe some fomer major Conservative supporters have been giving to Reform UK instead!
A flood of new members and cash is reported to be pouring into Reform now that Nigel Farage has returned.
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Post by UnseenI on Jun 11, 2024 17:56:20 GMT
A record number of candidates will stand
This is hot from the BBC website: “More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll. The increase primarily comes from Reform UK ending its promise not to stand against Conservatives, the Green Party standing more candidates and the Workers Party of Britain entering its first general election. There has also been a large spike in the number of independent and smaller party candidates standing.” www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo
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