Are We Heading For World War Three?

I really hope not, but I am afraid of what will happen now.

We need to be careful about what we say.

Weirdly, I am not extremely worried. I see this as a necessary positive: the global population is waking up to reality, and we need that. If the global population says to its leaders "No, we don't want to fight, we want peace," then we have no way war can happen. This is the outcome we need.

We need to keep an eye on fertiliser,  because that supply can be deeply disrupted by all of this happening with Israel. This means problems with growing food, and from there a rise in food prices. So this is a risk we need to monitor.

Also, energy is an Important consideration right now. Iran and Venezuela upped production to counter the reduction in oil output in Saudi Arabia. Iran is likely to be a notable player in this, so might cut back production, or face sanctions. So costs might go up there as well.

Here is some good analysis on the affair, with a slant towards economics. The situation is now escalating, as it looks like an oil and gas embargo coming. Which means more financial pain to come.

This is a nasty situation. I want it clear I want the killing to stop, but I fear what events are now taking a life of their own.

One problem is that a lot of Hamas Rockets are homemade, using things like cut up water pipes. So they can easily injure Palestinians in the process of attacking Israel.

What is significant is that Palestine is two areas, and we never hear of problems with the West Bank. It is always Gaza, which could be deeply important in understanding what is going on.

Right now gold and silver prices are on the rise, because people are rushing to safe havens. We could have this conflict be a trigger for economic catastrophe. As it is, things are getting very shaky.

“We could have this conflict be a trigger for economic catastrophe. As it is, things are getting very shaky.”

I agree. It all seems very insecure and could fall apart any time now.

YouTube is now trying to censor "Rome" in superchats and comments, because so many people are now making comparisons to the end of the Roman Empire. (Or more specifically,  the Western Roman Empire. The Eastern part kept going long afterwards,  though in an increasingly diminished state.)

The decline is getting more and more obvious to people,  which is good. We might end up with the masses wanting change, and fight to turn things around.

Today's march for peace was peaceful

I watched some of it live online. The procession looked amazing from above.

There was a very high turnout of pro-Palestine protesters: the police estimated the number at 300,000; the organisers say that there were over 800,000 participants. Many of them came by coach from other cities.

Crossing Vauxhall Bridge on the way to the US Embassy:



www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12737539/Pro-Palestinian-protesters-million-march-Londons-Embassy-Israel-stop-bombing-Gaza.html

Things are certainly heating up. It is going to be interesting to see how thongs pan out.

Not sure if people are aware, but the UK Government has been putting out messages about having batteries and torches, in case of emergency. Cyber attack is a word being spoken in the news more and more, too. Another invisible thread to be scared of...

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/05/britons-should-stock-up-on-torches-and-candles-in-case-of-power-cuts-says-oliver-dowden

The Houthis have apparently attacked a Russian ship now. There are clear attempts to escalate things.

I reckon we will be getting to November,  and it will be like the Cuban Missile Crisis on steroids. Talk of nuclear war,  and the like. It won't happen,  because the masses will not stand for it. They will scream for peace, so things will dial back down.

All of the attacks in the Red Sea has doubled container costs. So prices of consumer goods will go up as a result. 

Interesting times, indeed. 

Another DM doomsday diagram

Here are the usual suspects:

We have now got escalations in the Middle East. It looks like Iran is trying to deplete Israel's Iron Dome, so they can then launch massive attacks and get through.

It is certainly building up. Buckle up, it's going to get scary.

The advantage we have now, is that we have experience. We have a far better idea as to what works, and what does not. In the past, it was all theoretical and conjecture.

Iran and Israel was some posturing between them. Looks like it has died down a bit.

We need to keep an eye out for cyber attacks. Infrastructure hits is a good possibility.